Upon a thorough examination of the factual growth numbers, it is clear that if we don’t consider the realities of our addiction to growth, we may actually be setting our system up for a forced reduction in growth.
Ludwig von Mises
The Austrian School of Economics
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The option is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
Dr. Albert Bartlett
The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our Inability to Understand the Exponential Function
Education: Actually, it belongs in both columns.
Growth = resource use, increased waste. Without more recycling of waste and prudent resource use, the fact remains that there are limits to growth in a finite environment.
Life Expectency of the Reserve base of U.S. Coal
In the 1970’s the American Electric company stated: “We’re sitting on half of the worlds supply of coal – enough for over 500 years.”
When you combine that with a report to the US senate at the time you can see that it presents a pretty rosy picture
“At current levels of output and recovery, these reserves can be expected to last more than 500 years.”
Just one problem. The ad from the energy company was based on a mistake. The senate report said “At current levels”. That means no growth of energy use. But we a ll know and the EPA tracks and measure the growth of energy use? Following the exponent compounded, we find that we have much less time that we thought based on the mistake.
When applying consumption to growth and use of the resource, we find that the many of assumptions. Dr. Bartlett believes we should be cautions when hearing statements of how long our energy fossil file energy supplies will last: “Don’t believe any prediction of the life expectancy of a non-renewable resource until you have confirmed the prediction by repeating the calculation.” and “The more optimistic the prediction the greater is the probability that it is based on faulty arithmetic or on no arithmetic at all.”
The more rapidly we consume our resources the more self sufficient we will be. In other words by exhausting our resources we will be better off? Said another way the faster we get the oil out of the ground, then better we will be. But that only means the faster we will be out of fossil energy. Common sense?
Material consumption to the point of resource exhaustion does not equate to the rhetorical suppositions provided to us by business and politicians saying we need growth.
Our economy is riding on the favor of cheap fossil fuels and the abundance of those fuels. Based on supply estimates, peak oil will occur sometime between now and 2030. The cost of oil extraction has gone up recently and that is at least a portion of the price increase with some of these increases based on artificial inflation components courtesy of speculation.
Our addiction to Growth
Dr. M. King Hubbert: “The exponential phase of the industrial growth which has dominated human activities during the last couple of centuries is now drawing to a close.” and, “Yet during the last two centuries of unbroken industrial growth, we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture.”
“Sometimes we have to do what is required”
We must educate all of our people to an understanding of the arithmetic and consequences of growth, especially in terms of populations adn in terms of the earth’s finite resources.
We must educate the people to recognize the fact that growth of populations and growth of rates of consumption of resources can not be sustained.
The First Law of Sustainability
“Population growth and/or growth in the rates of consumption of resources CANNONT BE SUSTAINED!”
We must educate people to see the need to examine carefully the allegations of the technological optimists who assure us that science and technology will always solve all of our problems of population growth, food, energy and resources.
The average person in the United States consumes 30 times the resources as a person in a third world country.
Dr. Bartlett: “To be successful with this experiment of human life on earth we have to understand the laws of nature as they are encountered in the study of sciences and mathematics.
Unite America with The Centrist Party
- Enough is enough. We must unite to reclaim our government. Join the Centrist Party. Work together to heal our nation and return balance in governance and common sense for the nation and the people.
The Centrist News
Check out Centrist News & Perspectives for centrist media intelligence:
Challenging, Difficult & Dangerous: The Shiller P/E
by John P. Reisman | Nov 3, 2021 | Economic Security, Economy
The Shiller P/E Ratio Near 40 The Shiller P/E ratio has only been this high on three other occasions. The 1929 market crash, which resulted from an overly exuberant market. The 2000 bubble and crash, which resulted from an overly exuberant market. And now, during a...
Fact Check On Trumps NOT The Greatest Economy
by John P. Reisman | Oct 28, 2020 | Economic Sophistry, Economy
Simply put, without going into the whole history of US economics, since Truman, Johnson, Kennedy, Clinton Reagan, Carter, Eisenhower, Nixon & Ford all had higher GDP performance that Donald Trump. And that’s only eight that did better than Donald. If you go back further, Donny gets pushed even further down the list. So, no Trump did not produce the greatest economy and yes, he continues to lie to his supporters about it.
Trump vs Shiller – Let’s Get Ready To Rumbleeee…
by John P. Reisman | Mar 22, 2020 | Economy
Trump cheated America into a Fake Market that put the country into a higher risk position. To make himself look better he forced higher levels of artificial inflation into the market just so he could brag that he was able to make the market go up by giving tax breaks and lowering interest rates. Now America is forced to pay the price for Trumps ego.
#News, #Economy, #Security, #Trump
The Trump Trade: How much damage is the trade war really causing?
by John P. Reisman | Jan 9, 2020 | Economy
The Trump Trade: Trump created a global trade war, which has put American farmers at risk, pushed many into bankruptcy, disrupted our relationships with allies, and reduced Americas prestige in the world. What’s next?
#News, #Economy, #Finance, #TradeWar
Trump’s China Trade War
by John P. Reisman | Nov 21, 2019 | Economy
Trump’s Trade War is as dizzying as Trump’s Foreign Policy. He claims it’s great while American Farmers are suffering the impacts of Trump’s ineptitude.
#News, #Economy, #TradeWar, Trump
86th Annual BIS Report
by John P. Reisman | Jul 25, 2016 | Economy
Summary: The global economy seems not as bad as rhetoric suggests while historically high risk factors remain unaddressed. Low global growth expectations and high debt narrows the range for policy maneuvering.. There is an urgent policy need for sustainable expansion...
Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community
by John P. Reisman | Jun 12, 2016 | Economic Security, Economy, Security
by John P. Reisman — last modified Jun 12, 2016 08:25 PM We in the Intelligence Community are committed every day to provide the nuanced, multidisciplinary intelligence that policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel need to protect American...
84th BIS Report
by John P. Reisman | Mar 4, 2014 | Economy
by John P. Reisman — last modified Nov 24, 2020 05:46 PM Bank for International Settlements, 84th Annual Report, Released 29 June 2014, Basel, Switzerland. The BIS report outlines the general assessment of economic risks and considerations for World Banks and...
Fiscal Cliff? Make it a Fiscal Slide.
by John P. Reisman | Nov 15, 2012 | Economy
The fiscal cliff is a term that describes the retirement of the Bush tax cuts and forced spending cuts baked into the budgeting agenda for the government. To deal with it properly we need to do several things. First, set aside our personal bias and second, set aside our politics. We, America, is…
Trickle-Down = Flooding-Out Economics
by John P. Reisman | Oct 29, 2012 | Economic Security, Economy
Is trickle-down really trickle-out? Trickle-down economics has been lauded as a good way to run the economy for decades by Republican party leaders. Libertarians, and various executives that have spoken on the issue as well. Is it good for the economy? Looking at recent analysis it is clearly…